The Establishment Vs. The Newcomers: EU Spring Split Finals Preview And eSports Betting Picks
Published: Apr 16, 2016 - Last Updated: Jul 29, 2020
We’ll quickly recap how both of these teams arrived here and then provide our in-depth analysis on how these two squads will face up against each other.
Origen is firing on all cylinders
It hasn’t been the smoothest of splits for sophomore team Origen. The transition from xPeke to PowerOfEvil in the mid lane appeared broken after week six. A poor showing at IEM didn’t help matters either. That lead to Origen deciding to put xPeke back into the starting lineup for the last two weeks of play, ensuring that Origen made the playoffs.
Since the playoffs started, Origen has decided to go with a somewhat rotating mid lane. xPeke has come into crucial games against both H2K and Unicorns of Love. The results have been successful, as Origen finds themselves in the finals with a chance to claim first place. There were certainly struggles in their series matchup against H2K, but the team found success in the end.
H2K and Origen had spent the week prior scrimmaging against each other and they both deploy similar game strategies and styles of play. The end result was a closely contested matchup that went the entire five games.
In game one, Origen drafted a composition that could contend with H2K’s strength: the early game. Origen started the game with quick and crisp rotations, catching H2K out of position as well as securing superior vision. H2K responded by playing a bit more passive, trying to stall out the game while taking objectives on the opposite side of the map.
Ultimately H2K’s damage started to outpace Origen in the mid-game, and the team fights Origen was winning in the early-to-mid game started to turn in H2K’s favor. An epic team fight around Baron ultimately decided the winner of game one. Origen found the Baron kill, but H2K was able to clean up all of the kills. This marathon of a game (it went a total of 55 minutes) finally ended with an H2K win.
Game once again started out favorably for Origen. This time, it was H2K’s early aggression and greed that caused them to falter. No matter what H2K attempted to do – rotations, vision control, extended skirmishes, tower dives – Origen was there with an answer.
Each skirmish resulted in Origen securing an additional objective, such as a pick, dragon kill, and even the first Baron of the game. H2K attempted to put up an admirable defense, but Origen was able to starve them from resources in the mid-to-late game. The second Baron of the game, an easy kill for Origen, ultimately ended the game.
With the series now tied 1-1, H2k stepped their level of play up to another level. They started the game focused, winning each lane. They punished Origen for every mistake they made in this game, finding repeatedly successful ganks and establishing superior vision control. In the end, H2K completely snowballed this game, forcing Origen into poor situation after situation.
Game four was a must-win for Origen. PowerOfEvil has subbed out for xPeke for the first time this series. Game four would end up being much like the marathon opener of this series, going over 50 minutes. The microgame – warding, vision control, wave control, and itemization – became a crucial element. Through 32 minutes, both teams were essentially tied in gold.
Origen found a perfectly coordinated team fight 36 minutes in the game, giving them the first and only Baron of the game. What was one a close game bloomed into a 4,000 gold lead for Origen. After another Baron bait by Origen that resulted in a huge ace, Origen was able to push through H2K’s base and clinch a necessary win.
With a finals berth on the line, both teams came out passive in game 5, intent on waiting for the other team to make a mistake. All of that changed 22 minutes in the game when Origen executed a team fight to perfection.
With that win, Origen immediately rushed over to Baron. Notwithstanding their 6,000 gold lead, Origen played every fight more cleanly than H2K, showing no signs of pressure. Just 35 minutes in the game, Origen had a second Baron kill and a 10,000 gold lead, an advantage that proved to be insurmountable.
In a minor upset, Origen ended H2K’s chance at the finals.
G2 continues to prove they’re the best team
At this point, everyone is aware of G2’s successful Spring Split and all of the accolades they accrued – rookie of the split, player of the split, and coach of the split. All of it was deserving, as G2 proved to be the best team in an EU LCS that was extremely top-heavy in talent.
To say that G2 exceeded expectations would be an understatement.
Roster changes left Kikis moving from the jungle to the top lane. He proved to be more then reliable at that position this split. His teleport plays have been on point and his time in the jungle has given him a unique perspective on the game from the top lane position.
The additions of Trick (taking over Kikis in the jungle) and Emperor at AD Carry (replacing Jess who departed to Dignitas) proved to be the difference between good and great.
G2 earned their split win by adapting to the meta quicker than their competition. G2 made it a habit of ganking with multiple members of the team (often Trick with either Hybrid or PerkZ). This left junglers in disarray, trying to clean up what was left of their jungle camps.
Hybrid has been a monster in the support position for G2 as well. He racked up 187 assists during the Spring Split (10 more than the next best player). His play with Emperor has created a formidable bottom lane duo.
Even more impressive has been PerkZ in the mid lane. He has averaged nine CS per minute, tops in the EU LCS. Combine this with his opponents only averaging six CS per minute (second-best in the EU LCS) and you have the signs of a dominant laner. He does all of this for G2 despite being one of the most efficient roaming mid laners in the game.
The only thing left to accomplish for G2 is a finals victory. Standing in the way first, was sixth-seeded Fnatic. One of the teams that G2 idolized as they came up from the Challenger Series (besides the team they’ll face in the finals) was Fnatic. You could tell this in game one, with G2 giving Fnatic a lot of respect.
Both teams played it conservatively in game one through the first 15 minutes. Fnatic was able to build up a slow lead over G2 in the early game, but G2 proved to be the better team fighting squad. Every team fight that G2 forced in game one ended up in their favor, and Fnatic’s early lead quickly vanished.
After a large team fight broke out late game, G2 traded two members for four. With the death timers so high, G2 pushed through the remaining Fnatic defense to clinch an opening win.
G2 started the second game in a much different style, going back to their aggressive early game. Unfortunately for them, Fnatic was prepared to punish them for each failed tower dive and rotation. After a crucial counter kill on a PerkZ tower dive, Fnatic was in prime position to take game two.
A few more lopsided team fight wins and counter rotations by Fnatic ultimately closed out the game and tied the series at 1-1.
It was clear in game three that G2 had decided to feed as many resources as possible into PerkZ. Whether it was teleport plays, roams from the support position, or ganks from Trick, G2 threw everything they had at PerkZ. Fnatic was able to punish G2 for some of their mistakes, but ultimately G2 proved they can thrive in chaos.
Much like game one, G2 strung together enough team fights to dwindle down Fnatic’s base and take a 2-1 series lead.
Fnatic was in do or die mode for game four, applying constant early game pressure. G2 proved to be resilient though, providing ample counter pressure across the map as a defensive measure. Fnatic preferred to secure objectives and avoid team fights, but ultimately G2 was able to force a fight around Baron.
After winning the fight and securing Baron, G2 completely controlled the bottom half of the map. Febiven would make two crucial mistakes, giving G2 even more map control. Ultimately that led to failed defensive sieges by Fnatic, and G2 bullied their way to a series-winning game four and a trip to play Origen in the finals.
Now on to our finals predictions for those of you out there who are going to be visiting any eSport betting sites this weekend.
G2 eSports (2.09) vs Origen (1.75)
As the meta has shifted from carry top laners to tanky top laners, and tanky junglers moving to carry junglers, G2 has proven to be the team with the skill set to best adapt.
Kikis is at his most comfortable playing tanky top laners, and Trick has proven to be excellent carrying the game from the jungle position. Kikis has seen his damage increase by 25 percent as a result, and Trick has played Nidalee and Graves better than anyone all season long.
With PerkZ dominating the mid lane and thriving with the transition to mid laners taking teleport, G2 appears to be at the top of their game.
Origen has also benefited from the shift in the meta, with a rocky start to the split ending in a finals appearance for the team. sOAZ, Amazing, and most importantly, PowerOfEvil, have all transitioned well.
sOAZ looked lost at times in the split pushing top lane meta, preferring to be the front line damage soaker in team fights. Amazing has looked more consistent in the jungle as of late. Meanwhile, PowerOfEvil has been rejuvenated after a brief benching at the end of the regular season.
xPeke had enough confidence in PowerOfEvil to start him in a crucial game five against H2K last week.
Ultimately G2 still has an advantage in two crucial parts of the current meta. PerkZ is a dominant mid laner, and will give either PowerOfEvil or xPeke issues in the laning phase. Also, despite Amazing’s improvement, Trick is still the best jungler in the EU LCS.
Where Origen will have a slight advantage is in the bottom lane. Zven has been the best AD Carry all split long, and that has remained true throughout the playoffs. Will that be enough to take down the favorites in G2?
Both teams have flaws in their game. G2 can be too aggressive in the early game, giving away advantages that they can’t overcome in the late game. Origen has struggled to find an identity and to coordinate as a team (their early playoff success has no doubt invigorated them).
The difference is G2 has done a better job this split of adjusting to their weaknesses than Origen has.
I’m picking G2 here in a 3-2 series win. Be sure to compare eSports betting odds across various bookmakers (Betway and Bet365 being just two of the top eSports wagering sites) ahead of time.
The combination of PerkZ and Trick will be too much for Zven and Fnatic to handle. G2 will get burned two games for their early aggression, but they’re simply the better, more polished team here.
