Lineups Of Legends: NA Quarterfinals/Semifinals Fantasy Esports Lineup

[toc]It’s finally here! The North American Summer Split Playoffs are this week.

Since there are only four active teams during the Quarterfinals, we’ll be taking an in depth look at how each team matches up against each other, daily fantasy players from each series that we like, and who to potentially avoid.

A few quick notes about our DFS projections:

• Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) and projected prices are directly from AlphaDraft.
• Stats are accumulated from LoL eSports and Oracle Elixir.
• We’ve provided a legend at the end of the article for any acronyms used.
• If you want to compare odds across various esports betting sites, you can use our esports betting odds tracker.

Cloud9 vs. Team Envy

Team Envy will be severely disrespected coming into this matchup, and to be honest, they deserve all the criticism.

They ended the split going an abysmal 1-9 and it’s arguable that Phoenix1 or Apex Gaming had stronger finishes to their inaugural LCS start. However, thanks to Envy’s blistering start to the split (and the early struggles of Phoenix1 and Apex) all of that is non-consequential.

Team Envy was able to hang onto the sixth seed (if only by a few threads) and will get to face off against Cloud9.

For Cloud9, getting the third seed and playing against Team Envy was a huge accomplishment for them. If they win (and they’ll be heavy favorites) they potentially avoid TSM until the Finals (they would play Immortals in the Semifinals no matter who wins in the Team Liquid vs CLG series).

Matchup breakdown

The short history between these two teams is heavily one-sided and in favor of Cloud9. Team Envy was swept in both of their series this split. Neither of the four games were particularly close (Cloud9 had two games combined where they only died once).

There are two stats that can help us examine how a team performs throughout the course of a game. The first is EGR, or Early-Game Rating. This data lets us examine how a team performs in the early game.

EGR is centered at 50, with scores higher than 50 being stronger and lower than 50 being weaker. Generally, an EGR of 60 or higher is very good, while a rating of 40 or lower is very poor.

The second stat we’ll be looking at is MLR or Mid/Late Rating. This helps us examine how a team performs in the mid-to-late game compared to their competition.

MLR is centered at zero, and is expressed as a positive or negative number. Generally, an MLR of +10 or higher is very good, while a -10 or lower is very poor.

Now let’s put those two stats to use. Envy currently has an EGR of 51.8, which basically equates to the team having an average early game. Cloud9 is just one point higher at 52.8. This essentially means that both teams have average starts to their games.

The big difference between Team Envy and Cloud9 is their MLR. Team Envy has an MLR of -10.8, the worst in the NA LCS last split (that’s right, their late game was a fraction worse then 1-17 Echo Fox).

By comparison, Cloud9 has an MLR of +10.8, placing them in third place behind TSM and Immortals.

[show-table name=cta-alphadraft] [show-table name=cta-alphadraft]

Essentially what this means is that both Cloud9 and Envy have equal early games, but Envy falls off hard as the game progresses while Cloud9 becomes more efficient. Examining all of the gold deficit data from Team Envy’s 18 series this split shows this to be true, as the team tapers off in the late game in almost every single matchup.

DFS projections

I like every member of Cloud9 here. In particular, Sneaky and Jensen should put up some big numbers against Team Envy. In four games, Jensen went 17-6-32 and Sneaky went 21-3-24.

Meteos also had a superb season against Team Envy, only dying once in four games. His official statline through four games was an outstanding 7-1-38. Impact’s 14-4-26 and Smoothie’s 2-2-40 also are impressive numbers.

I expect similar results in this series, with Cloud9 winning 3-0 or 3-1 (two weeks off may leave enough rust for Envy to take a game).

For Envy, starting any of their players comes with risk. Seraph had a great start to the split but has really tapered off (he has a meager 2.4 KDA). LOD is perhaps the strongest player on this team currently (4.8 KDA), but his stat line through four games was a measly 4-9-4.

It’s also worth noting, not a single Envy player had a combined Kill Participation (kills + assists) over 10 in the four games against Cloud9. That’s just downright pathetic.

Counter Logic Gaming vs. Team Liquid

The similarities between these two teams this split is astounding, both in the trajectory of their season and statistically. Their two series this Summer Split went the full three games, with Counter Logic Gaming sweeping both.

Multiple games were tightly contested, with intricate plays determining the outcome. This indicates CLG versus TL will most likely be the more competitive of the two Quarterfinal series.

Matchup breakdown

Using both of our stats we just introduced in our last matchup breakdown, CLG currently has a EGR of 52.6, with TL right behind them at 48.4. Furthermore, CLG has an MLR of 1.8, with TL posting a 2.8 MLR.

This data indicates that both teams have average early, mid, and late games. Given that both teams each have played over 43 games in 10 weeks, it’s quite remarkable just how close these two teams are with that large a sample size.

Breaking this series down further, both teams have almost identical kill-to-death ratios (K:D) and combined kills per minute (CKPM) – CLG’s K:D is 0.95 compared to TL’s 1.02, and CLG’s CKPM is 0.72 compared to TL’s 0.71.

Where this series will be determined is how each team executes their strategy. TL’s preference is to put their jungler, Dardoch, on a high damage champion and play around him. We can see this in their First Baron Rate (FBR – 53%) and Baron Control Rate (BCR – 56%). In comparison, CLG has an FBR of 37% and a BN of 44%, below normal rates in both categories.

CLG’s most successful strategy is to have Darshan split push while the rest of CLG puts pressure on another area of the map. This stretches out the map, forcing the opposing team to send a response to Darshan’s pressure.

This is when CLG takes advantage, either picking off an enemy player as they separate from the team or securing an objective. This is a particularly effective strategy if Darshan builds an advantage early on, enhancing his split pushing abilities and forcing the enemy to send multiple members to stop him.

DFS projections

After these two teams have played six games against each other this split alone, we have a fairly decent sample size of what to expect coming into this matchup on a per player basis. There are a few players that shine and a few players you may want to avoid.

For CLG, Huhi and Stixxay have had strong performances against their lane opponents. Huhi is 14-7-38 in six games compared to Fenix’s 18-17-23. Stixxay is 23-11-22 compared to Fabbbyyy’s 7-5-20 (only played three combined games against CLG).

For TL, Dardoch and Fenix carry very high ceilings. Dardoch is a very rare jungler that plays aggressively. While his 15-20-29 stat line against CLG this split isn’t stellar, he can go off in any game. The same is true for Fenix.

I would look to avoid CLG’s Darshan and TL’s Matt in this series. Darshan is only 16-19-23 against Lourlo this split. Meanwhile, Matt is 3-17-41.

CLG’s Xmithie (21-13-40) and TL’s Lourlo (15-14-22) won’t put up huge numbers but have shown some consistency this split.

I expect this series to go five games, so we could see extra value in these players due to the heavier volume.