How to Calculate Implied Probability from Odds

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Published: Feb 23, 2023 - Last Updated: Feb 29, 2024

If you’re a new bettor, you will be reading all kinds of terms that you may not recognise. It’s a tough journey at the best of times, but learning how to bet effectively can be suffocating for the inexperienced gamblers out there. With this guide, we’re tackling a small portion of that journey, teaching you how to calculate implied probability, and more importantly, identifying what implied probability even is.  So here’s our guide to teaching you how to calculate implied probability in betting.

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What is Implied Probability in Betting?

It may sound complex when you first hear the term, but calculating odds with an implied probability formula isn’t actually all that difficult.

Implied probability is a basic formula that allows you to convert betting odds into a percentage that’ll give you a more visual indicator of how likely a competitor is to win their match. It’s a concept that can be applied to almost any bet type, as all it requires is a base set of odds to be calculated.

Calculating Implied Probability From Odds

If you’re trying to calculate implied probability from odds, there are actually only a few steps that you’ll need to tick off.

Here’s an example of the formula that can be used to determine implied probability, using esports betting as a guide:

Atlanta FaZe (1.20) vs. Florida Mutineers (5.50) – Call of Duty League

how to calculate implied probability

Credit: Call of Duty League via YouTube

In this situation, you can apply the following formula:

(1 / decimal odds) x 100 = implied probability result

So, let’s assume you’re backing Florida Mutineers, the underdog, and would like to find out the team’s chance of winning the match:

(1 / 5.50) x 100 = 18.1%

That’s the most basic way to learn how to calculate implied probability, and it can be used in any sport – or any esports title, for that matter. There’s such a thing as reverse implied odds, but that’s a concept that’s more commonly used in card games and not in sports betting.

How to Use Implied Probably to Succeed

If you’re coming into this with the belief that implied probability or implied odds will offer you an instant path to success, then you’re wrong. It’s more of a visualisation tool, and as the best esports betting guides out there, it’ll help you understand betting a little better, but it won’t do the legwork for you.

If you have trouble reading or understanding traditional betting odds, you can use an implied probability formula or even a calculator to get a better representation of your chances. If there are a series of matches that you’d like to bet on but the esports betting odds are confusing, you can simply use a simple mathematic equation to produce a percentage-based representation.

After all, an 18.1% chance of winning (implied) makes much more sense than 5.50. It’s a tool that can make you a better bettor simply because it can help you understand more clearly what it actually is that you’re betting on.

Grant Taylor-Hill

Since: February 12, 2021

Grant is a lifelong, multi-platform gamer with a passion for journalism and more than ten years' experience in the industry. He'll try any game once, and when he's not playing them, he's watching them, being as he is an avid esports fan.

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