LoL Esports Global Power Rankings – Are the numbers accurate?
Published: Oct 1, 2024
Riot Games rolled out several announcements for the future. Among them was as the LoL Esports Global Power Rankings; a brand new system to rank all teams in their esports ecosystem.
Do these rankings have any merit to them?
Flawed ELO-like Model
It’s no secret that certain regions in League of Legends are more competitive than others especially at LoL Worlds. Specifically, the Chinese (LPL) and Korean (LCK) regions sit head-and-shoulders above other regions such as the LEC and LCS as demonstrated by international standings and viewership statistics.
Accordingly, in this new ‘ELO-like model‘, Riot Games is using a formula with the following components:
- 55% – Team Elo
- 45% – League Elo
While these numbers may seem fair at face value, it’s my opinion that League Elo should account for a higher percentage.
Time and time again, a team stomps a smaller region with high hopes for international competition according to the LoL odds. However, in the light of the best competition, the team crumbles and fails to impress – here are a few examples from MSI 2024:
- PSG Talon placed dead last after dominating the PCS region
- GAM placed 9-10th after destroying the VCS region
In addition, Weibo Gaming was seeded into Worlds 2023 as the fourth seed from the LPL, still managing to finish in the Grand Final.
Speaking of which, seven of the eight teams in the Worlds 2023 Knockout Stage were from the LPL or LCK.
While Riot Games may not want to admit it, there is a significant imbalance in LoL regions.
Metas and MVPs are not accounted for
Riot Games goes on to mention a few key features, such as game-based resolution, match weighting, and other details, to try to make predictions and standings as accurate as possible.
While most of this is positive, there is nothing Riot Games mentions that accounts for an ever-changing meta.
With every patch, rankings adjust slightly as teams adapt to the changing meta. I’d recommend that Riot Games consider the state of the meta as a factor in determining team rankings for LoL Worlds betting.
In addition, stand-out MVP players should be highlighted and influence Team Elo. For example, a team may be struggling, but if the team has the best Jungler in the world, it should be considered.
While Riot lists it as a future enhancement, I’d like to see it sooner than later.
Are the Power Rankings an esports betting aid or detriment?
Our critique of this new LoL Esports Global Power Ranking is based on the idea that this ranking may be used as an esports betting aid, a tool to help esports betting sites predict the outcome of matches.
In conclusion, while this may help, we wouldn’t predict matches solely using this Power Ranking which Riot Games has admitted can be improved.
